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Posted on: December 24, 2008 5:10 pm
 

Cumulative Bowl Revenues 1998-2008

Cumulative bowl revenues for BCS years 1998-2008

Oklahoma        $111,500,000
Ohio St.             $110,950,000
USC                   $109,498,000
Florida                 $90,150,000
Florida St.           $88,025,000
Michigan             $76,600,000
LSU                     $76,175,000
Virginia Tech     $70,050,000
Georgia              $65,375,000
Texas                  $64,198,000
Miami, FL           $62,400,000
Penn St.             $51,050,000
Notre Dame      $50,048,000
Wisconsin         $45,762,000
Tennessee        $42,800,000
West Virginia     $41,700,000
Nebraska           $38,200,000
Alabama             $36,600,000
Auburn                $36,587,000
Utah                    $36,200,000
Illinois                 $31,250,000
Iowa                     $30,525,000
Oregon                $25,830,000
Louisville            $24,700,000
Purdue                $23,500,000
Kansas St.         $23,400,000
Boise St.            $23,248,000
Texas A&M         $22,300,000
Cincinnati           $21,300,000
Oregon St.          $21,200,000
Hawaii                 $20,796,000
Maryland             $20,775,000
Wake Forest      $20,500,000
Kansas               $19,700,000
Washington        $19,350,000
Pittsburgh           $19,150,000
UCLA                   $19,025,000
Colorado            $18,612,000
Arkansas            $18,600,000
Washington St. $16,500,000
Texas Tech        $15,650,000
Clemson            $15,062,000
Georgia Tech    $14,250,000
Syracuse            $14,000,000
Stanford              $13,700,000
Michigan State   $12,750,000
Missouri              $10,350,000
Boston College $10,255,000
Mississippi           $9,950,000
South Carolina     $9,700,000
Oklahoma St.        $9,630,000
Texas Christian    $9,500,000
Arizona St.             $8,298,000
Minnesota             $8,080,000
Virginia                   $8,080,000
Fresno St.              $7,900,000
Southern Miss      $7,675,000
Kentucky                $7,450,000
California               $7,150,000
Colorado St.          $7,075,000
Mississippi St.      $6,700,000
BYU                         $6,650,000
North Carolina St. $5,900,000
Northwestern        $5,825,000
Navy                        $5,075,000
Iowa St.                  $5,000,000
East Carolina       $4,898,000
Houston                $4,850,000
Tulsa                     $4,350,000
Marshall                $4,000,000
Air Force               $3,950,000
South Florida       $3,950,000
New Mexico         $3,925,000
Memphis              $3,575,000
North Carolina    $3,550,000
Toledo                  $3,330,000
North Texas         $3,250,000
Arizona                  $2,600,000
Northern Illinois  $2,600,000
Nevada-Reno      $2,500,000
Texas-El Paso     $2,500,000
Bowling Green     $2,300,000
Connecticut          $2,300,000
Rutgers                 $2,300,000
Central Florida     $2,250,000
Central Michigan $2,250,000
Louisiana Tech   $2,100,000
Miami, OH            $1,950,000
Tulane                  $1,750,000
Vanderbilt             $1,600,000
Ball State              $1,500,000
Troy                       $1,400,000
West. Michigan   $1,375,000
Indiana                 $1,200,000
Florida Atlantic    $1,075,000
Rice                          $950,000
Nevada-LV              $800,000
Wyoming                 $800,000
Akron                        $750,000
Alabama-Birm        $750,000
Arkansas State       $750,000
Buffalo                      $750,000
Idaho                        $750,000
M. Tennessee St.   $750,000
Ohio                          $750,000
San Jose State       $750,000

Posted on: December 20, 2008 1:40 pm
Edited on: December 22, 2008 5:56 am
 

Cumulative BCS rankings

I assigned numerical values for final BCS rankings for each year since 1998 and calculated totals by team and conference as follows #1=25, #2=24, #3=23, etc. Final BCS rankings 1 through 15 for the years 1998-2002 and 1 through 25 since 2003.

These rankings should be viewed considering the following:
 - They are an analysis of the regular season since they do not include bowl game results.
 - It is impossible to know how the teams would do in different conferences.
 - Teams that finished ranked 16-25 during the years 1998-2002 are penalized by the final BCS reporting methodology.
 - Major conferences ranked by averages and Mid-majors are ranked by totals.


 Conferences

Big 12
Oklahoma     174
Texas             163
Kansas St.      94
Nebraska        89
Texas A&M      43
Colorado         36
Texas Tech     34
Missouri          25
Oklahoma St. 20
Kansas           18
total               696
average        58.0

SEC
Florida             159
Tennessee     114
LSU                  112
Georgia           107
Auburn               60
Alabama            57
Arkansas           27
South Carolina 12
Mississippi         8
total                 656
average          54.7

Big Ten
Ohio St.            156
Michigan          108
Wisconsin         80
Penn St.             70
Iowa                   48
Illinois                31
Michigan State 25
Minnesota         14
Purdue               12
Northwestern      4
total                  548
average           49.8

PAC 10
USC                  156
Oregon               68
Washington St. 44
Washington       33
UCLA                  32
California           29
Oregon St.         24
Arizona St.         22
Arizona              19
Stanford            17
total                 444
average          44.4

ACC
Florida St.        118
Virginia Tech     75
Georgia Tech    39
Miami, Fl            30
Virginia               28
Clemson            23
Boston College 21
Maryland             19
Wake Forest      12
total                   365
average            35.5

Big East
Miami, Fl          90
West Virginia  56
Virginia Tech  45
Louisville        27
Cincinnati       18
Pittsburgh       11
Syracuse         11
Rutgers           10
South Florida   5
Connecticut     1
total               274
average        34.6

MWC
Texas Christian  47
Utah                      44
BYU                       25
total                     116

WAC
Boise St.           63
Hawaii               16
total                    79

Independent
Notre Dame  67

C-USA
Louisville       16
Tulane            16
Marshall         14
total                 46

MAC
Miami, OH         15
Ball State             4
Bowling Green   2
total                    21

Sunbelt
none


 Teams

Oklahoma      174
Texas              163
Florida            159
Ohio St.           156
USC                156
Miami, FL       120
Virginia Tech 120
Florida St.      118
Tennessee   114
LSU                112
Michigan        108
Georgia          107
Kansas St.       94
Nebraska         89
Wisconsin       80
Penn St.           70
Oregon             68
Notre Dame    67
Boise St.          63
Auburn             60
Alabama          57
West Virginia  56
Iowa                 48
TCU                 47
Utah                 44
Wash. St.        44
Louisville        43
Texas A&M      43
Georgia Tech 39
Colorado         36
Texas Tech     34
Washington    33
UCLA               32
Illinois              31
California        29
Virginia            28
Arkansas        27
BYU                 25
Mich. State     25
Missouri         25
Oregon St.      24
Clemson        23
Arizona St.      22
Bost College 21
Oklahoma St. 20
Arizona            19
Maryland         19
Cincinnati       18
Kansas           18
Stanford          17
Hawaii             16
Tulane             16
Miami, OH       15
Marshall          14
Minnesota       14
Purdue             12
S. Carolina      12
Wake Forest   12
Pittsburgh       11
Syracuse         11
Rutgers           10
Mississippi       8
South Florida   5
Ball State          4
Northwestern   4
Bowling Green 2
Connecticut      1


Teams most consistantly ranked in final BCS rankings.
10 years - Florida, Texas
9 years - Oklahoma

 

Posted on: October 10, 2008 11:01 pm
Edited on: October 10, 2008 11:17 pm
 

Average recruiting scores for FBS FB 2002-2008

Average anual recruiting class scores from Rivals and Scout.com for the years 2002-2008. Total is the average of the two sites.

School                 Average   rivals     scout

USC                     2708.21 2557.71 2858.71
Florida                 2540.57 2288.86 2792.29
LSU                      2390.50 2198.71 2582.29
Texas                   2308.36 2072.29 2544.43
Georgia               2304.07 2133.43 2474.71
Oklahoma           2274.29 2166.71 2381.86
Miami, FL            2264.36 2043.43 2485.29
Florida St.           2232.00 2191.29 2272.71
Michigan             2171.43 1934.43 2408.43
Tennessee        2111.64 1902.43 2320.86
Ohio St.               2092.86 1890.57 2295.14
Notre Dame      1988.14 1667.43 2308.86
Auburn               1915.36 1730.29 2100.43
Alabama            1846.57 1715.57 1977.57
Texas A&M        1723.21 1453.57 1992.86
South Carolina 1638.21 1522.86 1753.57
UCLA                  1604.14 1391.00 1817.29
Clemson            1542.71 1394.57 1690.86
Nebraska           1516.64 1404.71 1628.57
Penn St.              1514.36 1319.57 1709.14
California            1478.50 1331.57 1625.43
Oregon                1414.43 1271.71 1557.14
Virginia Tech      1413.86 1214.86 1612.86
North Carolina   1406.57 1154.14 1659.00
Pittsburgh           1357.29 1076.57 1638.00
Arkansas            1344.36 1203.43 1485.29
Washington       1343.71 1091.29 1596.14
Arizona St.          1322.07 1177.57 1466.57
Mississippi        1318.07 1208.29 1427.86
Oklahoma St.    1295.86 1175.00 1416.71
Virginia               1290.71 1144.29 1437.14
Maryland            1285.71 1217.29 1354.14
Illinois                1256.29 1042.00 1470.57
Colorado           1225.00 1120.14 1329.86
Arizona               1218.29 1152.57 1284.00
N. Carolina St.  1193.86 1038.43 1349.29
Iowa                    1173.71 1004.86 1342.57
Mississippi St.  1167.36 962.14 1372.57
Texas Tech       1128.50 880.29 1376.71
Wisconsin         1055.00 916.43 1193.57
West Virginia    1053.57 891.00 1216.14
Missouri             1048.86 1019.71 1078.00
Boston College 1037.29 958.00 1116.57
Kansas St.         1019.50 1080.29 958.71
Michigan State     998.64 991.14 1006.14
Georgia Tech       993.57 717.71 1269.43
Stanford                938.43 697.86 1179.00
Purdue                  917.36 810.29 1024.43
Rutgers                868.07 723.00 1013.14
Louisville              862.71 747.71 977.71
Oregon St.            851.29 758.86 943.71
AVERAGE             816.87 756.36 883.68
Syracuse              800.07 662.43 937.71
Minnesota            785.43 722.71 848.14
Washington St.   749.57 624.29 874.86
Kansas                719.50 754.14 684.86
Kentucky              669.21 545.29 793.14
Baylor                   656.00 438.86 873.14
South Florida      654.71 523.29 786.14
Iowa St.                644.07 613.86 674.29
BYU                       639.64 431.00 848.29
Southern Miss    586.07 571.00 601.14
Duke                     562.79 405.14 720.43
Wake Forest        531.00 369.29 692.71
Northwestern      526.36 435.14 617.57
Houston               498.14 347.57 648.71
UCF                      479.64 440.14 519.14
Utah                      479.29 414.71 543.86
San Diego State 464.07 419.86 508.29
Vanderbilt            453.29 355.14 551.43
Indiana                 452.14 349.00 555.29
Fresno St.            449.21 358.29 540.14
Boise St.              438.57 320.57 556.57
TCU                      431.36 405.14 457.57
Connecticut         400.93 250.14 551.71
Cincinnati            393.86 236.29 551.43
Memphis             389.57 355.29 423.86
Tulane                 375.71 251.29 500.14
Colorado St.       367.86 315.57 420.14
W. Kentucky        362.00               362.00
East Carolina     360.93 294.43 427.43
Troy                      358.21 242.14 474.29
M Tennessee St. 350.79 354.86 346.71
UNLV                    346.79 323.29 370.29
Tulsa                    344.43 325.29 363.57
Marshall               343.64 276.00 411.29
Temple                 341.50 291.57 391.43
Hawaii                  341.43 322.14 360.71
Akron                    338.57 302.57 374.57
SMU                      334.14 311.57 356.71
Idaho                    320.43 252.86 388.00
UAB                       313.93 314.00 313.86
Toledo                  295.07 219.14 371.00
Louisiana Tech  294.79 208.57 381.00
Nevada-Reno     290.50 295.14 285.86
Arkansas State   288.71 302.57 274.86
Florida Int             285.17 100.00 470.33
W. Michigan         282.79 280.43 285.14
New Mexico         280.71 272.57 288.86
North Texas         277.86 184.00 371.71
C. Michigan          267.43 216.86 318.00
Bowling Green    266.79 225.57 308.00
San Jose State   262.71 271.14 254.29
Utah State            262.43 251.43 273.43
Miami, OH            259.64 175.14 344.14
Wyoming              255.86 234.57 277.14
Rice                       249.14 197.71 300.57
E. Michigan          247.64 239.86 255.43
ULM                       239.64 252.43 226.86
Buffalo                   238.93 258.29 219.57
Ball State              238.36 177.00 299.71
UTEP                     236.50 125.57 347.43
Louisiana-Laf      234.79 239.57 230.00
Florida Atl             231.83    63.00 400.67
Kent State            226.93 184.57 269.29
N. Illinois              220.36 229.43 211.29
Air Force               204.43   88.00 320.86
Ohio                      202.93 123.71 282.14
Army                      200.36 132.14 268.57
New Mexico St     142.21 108.00 176.43
Navy                      135.07    66.86 203.29

sorted by total

 


 


ACC
Miami, FL             2264.36 2043.43 2485.29
Florida St.            2232.00 2191.29 2272.71
Clemson             1542.71 1394.57 1690.86
Virginia Tech      1413.86 1214.86 1612.86
North Carolina   1406.57 1154.14 1659.00
Virginia                1290.71 1144.29 1437.14
Maryland             1285.71 1217.29 1354.14
N. Carolina St.   1193.86 1038.43 1349.29
Boston College 1037.29   958.00 1116.57
Georgia Tech       993.57   717.71 1269.43
Duke                      562.79   405.14   720.43
Wake Forest         531.00   369.29   692.71


Big 12
Texas                   2308.36 2072.29 2544.43
Oklahoma           2274.29 2166.71 2381.86
Texas A&M          1723.21 1453.57 1992.86
Nebraska            1516.64 1404.71 1628.57
Oklahoma St.     1295.86 1175.00 1416.71
Colorado             1225.00 1120.14 1329.86
Texas Tech         1128.50   880.29 1376.71
Missouri              1048.86 1019.71 1078.00
Kansas St.          1019.50 1080.29   958.71
Kansas                  719.50   754.14   684.86
Baylor                     656.00   438.86   873.14
Iowa St.                  644.07   613.86   674.29


Big East
Pittsburgh           1357.29 1076.57 1638.00
West Virginia      1053.57   891.00 1216.14
Rutgers                  868.07   723.00 1013.14
Louisville               862.71   747.71    977.71
Syracuse               800.07   662.43    937.71
South Florida        654.71   523.29    786.14
Connecticut          400.93   250.14    551.71
Cincinnati              393.86   236.29    551.43


Big Ten
Michigan              2171.43 1934.43 2408.43
Ohio St.                2092.86 1890.57 2295.14
Penn St.               1514.36 1319.57 1709.14
Illinois                  1256.29 1042.00 1470.57
Iowa                     1173.71 1004.86 1342.57
Wisconsin           1055.00   916.43 1193.57
Michigan State      998.64   991.14 1006.14
Purdue                   917.36   810.29 1024.43
Minnesota             785.43   722.71    848.14
Northwestern        526.36   435.14   617.57
Indiana                   452.14   349.00   555.29


CUSA
Southern Miss      586.07 571.00 601.14
Houston                 498.14 347.57 648.71
UCF                        479.64 440.14 519.14
Memphis               389.57 355.29 423.86
Tulane                   375.71 251.29 500.14
East Carolina       360.93 294.43 427.43
Tulsa                      344.43 325.29 363.57
Marshall                343.64 276.00 411.29
SMU                       334.14 311.57 356.71
UAB                        313.93 314.00 313.86
Rice                        249.14 197.71 300.57
UTEP                      236.50 125.57 347.43


FBS IND
Notre Dame        1988.14 1667.43 2308.86
W. Kentucky           362.00                   362.00
Army                        200.36   132.14   268.57
Navy                        135.07      66.86   203.29


MAC 
Temple                   341.50 291.57 391.43
Akron                       338.57 302.57 374.57
Toledo                    295.07 219.14 371.00
W. Michigan           282.79 280.43 285.14
C. Michigan            267.43 216.86 318.00
Bowling Green      266.79 225.57 308.00
Miami, OH              259.64 175.14 344.14
E. Michigan            247.64 239.86 255.43
Buffalo                    238.93 258.29 219.57
Ball State               238.36 177.00 299.71
Kent State              226.93 184.57 269.29
N. Illinois                220.36 229.43 211.29
Ohio                        202.93 123.71 282.14


MWC
BYU                        639.64 431.00 848.29
Utah                       479.29 414.71 543.86
San Diego State  464.07 419.86 508.29
TCU                       431.36 405.14 457.57
Colorado St.         367.86 315.57 420.14
UNLV                     346.79 323.29 370.29
New Mexico          280.71 272.57 288.86
Wyoming               255.86 234.57 277.14
Air Force                204.43   88.00 320.86


PAC 10
USC                   2708.21 2557.71 2858.71
UCLA                 1604.14 1391.00 1817.29
California          1478.50 1331.57 1625.43
Oregon              1414.43 1271.71 1557.14
Washington      1343.71 1091.29 1596.14
Arizona St.         1322.07 1177.57 1466.57
Arizona               1218.29 1152.57 1284.00
Stanford               938.43    697.86 1179.00
Oregon St.           851.29    758.86   943.71
Washington St.   749.57    624.29   874.86


SEC
Florida                  2540.57 2288.86 2792.29
LSU                      2390.50 2198.71 2582.29
Georgia               2304.07 2133.43 2474.71
Tennessee         2111.64 1902.43 2320.86
Auburn                 1915.36 1730.29 2100.43
Alabama              1846.57 1715.57 1977.57
South Carolina   1638.21 1522.86 1753.57
Arkansas             1344.36 1203.43 1485.29
Mississippi         1318.07 1208.29 1427.86
Mississippi St.   1167.36    962.14 1372.57
Kentucky                669.21    545.29   793.14
Vanderbilt              453.29    355.14   551.43


Sun Belt
Troy                        358.21 242.14 474.29
M.Tennessee St. 350.79 354.86 346.71
Arkansas State    288.71 302.57 274.86
Florida Int              285.17 100.00 470.33
North Texas          277.86 184.00 371.71
ULM                        239.64 252.43 226.86
Louisiana-Laf       234.79 239.57 230.00
Florida Atl              231.83   63.00  400.67


WAC
Fresno St.             449.21 358.29 540.14
Boise St.               438.57 320.57 556.57
Hawaii                   341.43 322.14 360.71
Idaho                     320.43 252.86 388.00
Louisiana Tech   294.79 208.57 381.00
Nevada-Reno      290.50 295.14 285.86
San Jose State    262.71 271.14 254.29
Utah State             262.43 251.43 273.43
N. Mexico State    142.21 108.00 176.43

LINKS:
Rivals
http://rivals100.rivals.com/TeamRan
k.asp?postype=0&sort=0&year=2008

Scout.com
http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=14&yr=2008

Posted on: October 7, 2008 2:42 am
Edited on: October 7, 2008 3:33 am
 

State per capita population per FBS school

I looked at the 41 states with FBS schools and divided their populations by the number of in state FBS schools to calculate the per capita population per FBS school. Since states differ in their demographics and football cultures, and schools recruit outside their state bounderies this is for information only. Definitely trivial but interesting none the less.


State                         population      FBS     per capita

New York                19,297,729        2        9,648,865
New Jersey              8,685,920        1        8,685,920
Massachusetts       6,449,755        1        6,449,755
Missouri                    5,878,415        1        5,878,415
Maryland                   5,618,344        1        5,618,344
Wisconsin                5,601,640        1        5,601,640
California               36,553,215        7        5,221,888
Minnesota                5,197,621        1        5,197,621
Georgia                    9,544,750         2        4,772,375
Illinois                     12,852,548        3        4,284,183
Pennsylvania         12,432,792        3        4,144,264
Virginia                      7,712,091        2        3,856,046
Connecticut              3,502,309        1        3,502,309
Washington              6,468,424        2        3,234,212
Arizona                       6,338,755        2        3,169,378
Florida                     18,251,243        7        2,607,320
Average                292,778,712     117      2,502,382
Colorado                   4,861,515        2        2,430,758
Texas                       23,904,380      10       2,390,438
South Carolina         4,407,709       2        2,203,855
Michigan                  10,071,822       5        2,014,364
Oregon                       3,747,455       2        1,873,728
North Carolina          9,061,032       5        1,812,206
Nebraska                  1,774,571        1        1,774,571
Indiana                      6,345,289        4        1,586,322
Tennessee               6,156,719        4        1,539,180
Iowa                           2,988,046        2        1,494,023
Ohio                         11,466,917        8        1,433,365
Arkansas                   2,834,797       2         1,417,399
Kentucky                    4,241,474       3         1,413,825
Kansas                      2,775,997       2         1,387,999
Hawaii                        1,283,388      1         1,283,388
Nevada                       2,565,382      2         1,282,691
Oklahoma                  3,617,316      3         1,205,772
Alabama                     4,627,851      4        1,156,963
New Mexico                1,969,915      2           984,958
Mississippi                 2,918,785      3           972,928
West Virginia              1,812,035      2           906,018
Utah                             2,645,330      3            881,777
Louisiana                   4,293,204      5            858,641
Idaho                           1,499,402      2            749,701
Wyoming                       522,830       1            522,830

does not include military academies.

Posted on: September 12, 2008 5:48 pm
Edited on: October 22, 2008 3:34 am
 

OOC road games related to aver home attendence

I want to address the topic of non-conference road games which has been much addressed recently. I have said that I believe a team's willingness to travel for non-conference games is determined by revenue. I wanted to provide some objective evidence for this opinion so I decided to analize the relationship of home attendence to non-conference road games. I believe the evidence will show fewer road games with increasing home attendence.

I calculated the average home attendence and for 116 FBS schools from 2005-2007 (excluding independents). I divided them into 4 groups of 20 and a final group of 36 schools based on average attendence ranking. Here are the attendence numbers for all the groups.

rank            average     range
1-20            88401   70585-110396 
21-40          58674   50859-69093
41-60          43215   38049-50796
61-80          32635   24234-37566
81-116       16970    8921-22982

key
rank is the range group of rankings for average attendence
average is the average attendence for each ranking range
range is the attendence range for each attendence ranking group


I then calculated the average number of OCC regular season road games and total home games for each group for the 3 year period.

rank         away     home
1-20         2.50       20.3
21-40       3.40      19.3
41-60       4.25      19.1
61-80       5.15      18.5
81-116     7.86      16.0

key
rank is the range group of rankings for average attendence
away is the average number of regular season OOC away games for the 3 year period
home is the average number of total home games for the 3 year period

In conclusion, there was an inverse relationship between average home game attendence and average number of regular season non-conference away games from 2005-2007. As suspected the schools number of home games were directly related to their average home attendence. We must keep in mind that CFB is a business, and revenue is a large determinant of game location in the current BCS era. Schools at the lower range of average attendence want these road games because of their financial rewards. This is the nature of the beast. We don't have to like it but at least we should try to understand it.

Posted on: September 10, 2008 3:30 am
Edited on: October 10, 2008 11:42 pm
 

Analysis OOC and conference CFB schedules

Recently I've read much commentary regarding OOC scheduling. Most of this commentary has been presented as raw numbers with little explanation of what those numbers mean. Looking at the raw data I entertained the hypothesis that there was likely a relationship between the strengths of conference and non-conference schedules. Whereby I predict that the strength of the non-conference schedule is in general inversely proportional to the strength of the conference schedule. I attempted to verify this hypothesis by analyzing the relative strengths of the respective schedules by using number of games vs. ranked opponents for conference schedules and number of games vs. BCS and major opponents for non-conference schedules. As an additional control I compared regular season conference winning percentage to number of non-conference BCS opponents.

First for the BCS years 1998-2007 using only the 61 BCS conference teams that competed in BCS conferences for the full 10 years. 

position      # BCS
1-20            200 (10.0)
21-40          258 (12.9)
41-61          326 (15.52)

key
position is the position in the ranking of number of conference games vs. ranked opponents
# BCS is the total and average number of OOC games vs. BCS opponents for the teams in each respective ranking range

I also looked at the years 1992-2007 since this is another frequently cited range that coincides with the formation of the Bowl Coalition and the modern SEC. I used all available Div 1A teams for this range since the BCS was not in existence for a significant portion of this time frame.

position     # major
1-20           338 (16.9)
21-40         496.75 (24.84)
41-60         517.25 (25.86)
61-80         675 (33.75)
81-100       685 (34.25)
101-109     252 (28.0)

key
position is the position in the ranking of number of conference games vs. ranked opponents
# major is the total and average number of OOC games vs. major opponents for the teams in each respective ranking range

As another control I looked at the winning percentage of regular season conference games and compared that to total and average number of non-conference BCS opponents played for the BCS years. This eliminates the potential bias of poll rankings and uses a more direct measure of relative SOS. If my hypothesis is correct we should see OOC SOS as measured by BCS opponents increase proportionally with conference winning percentage.

position     # BCS
1-11           276 (25.1)
12-22         205 (18.6)
23-33         198 (18.0)
34-44         193 (17.5)
45-55         157 (14.3)
56-66         137 (12.5)

key
position is the position in the ranking of regular season conference winning percentage
# BCS is the total and average number of OOC games vs. BCS opponents for the teams in each respective ranking range

In conclusion, I believe there is a natural tendency to schedule stronger or weaker OCC games to compensate for weaker or stronger conference schedules respectively. All three analyses appear to support this premise. The only range that is out of line is the 101-109 range in the second analysis, and I believe this is primarily due to an inadequate sample size. If this hypothesis is valid then it is not at all surprising that teams with stronger conference schedules would schedule weaker out of conference schedules.

Later this week I will look at OOC road games and how they relate to home stadium seating capacity. I predict a significant inverse relationship between these two parameters.

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Links to the data at Sports Link Network

for 1998-2007
BCS schools sorted by number of conference games vs. ranked opponents
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=1998&thy=2007&conf=on&major=on&tmajor=on&yrk=on&sortby=GP

Div 1A schools sorted by number of OOC games vs BCS opponents
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=1998&thy=2007&ncnf=on&major=on&tmajor=on&nbowl=on&sortby=GP

for 1992-2007
Div 1A schools sorted by number of conference games vs. ranked opponents
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=1992&thy=2007&conf=on&yrk=on&sortby=GP

Div 1A schools sorted by number of OOC games vs major opponents
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=1992&thy=2007&ncnf=on&major=on&sortby=GP
 

Posted on: September 5, 2008 1:26 pm
Edited on: September 5, 2008 10:33 pm
 

Best or most consistent?

There has been a lot of debate about conference superiority in NCAA football, but the endless debates have done little to convince knowledgeable college football fans. I would like to propose a different idea today. Superiority in football (and really any endeavor) is achieved through consistency and not by always being the best.

For example, I looked at winning percentages vs. ranked opponents for the BCS years. This is not the ultimate stat just a performance measure that I follow and chose as an example. I used the excellent program at the Sports Link Network for this analysis and want to cite them.

Here are the annual results for each BCS conference for the years 1998-2007 in reverse chronological order.

6. ACC (7-28-0)--0.20000
4. ACC (8-28-0)--0.22222
1. ACC (17-36-0)--0.32075
2. ACC (12-33-0)--0.26667
4. ACC (8-25-0)--0.24242
4. ACC (12-33-0)--0.26667
3. ACC (10-25-0)--0.28571
5. ACC (7-26-0)--0.21212
3. ACC (8-19-0)--0.29630
1. ACC (11-25-0)--0.30556

4. Big 12 (15-36-0)--0.29412
7. Big 12 (3-25-0)--0.10714
3. Big 12 (11-32-0)--0.25581
6. Big 12 (7-27-0)--0.20588
6. Big 12 (9-34-0)--0.20930
3. Big 12 (13-33-0)--0.28261
6. Big 12 (7-31-0)--0.18421
4. Big 12 (12-39-0)--0.23529
4. Big 12 (12-30-0)--0.28571
4. Big 12 (10-39-0)--0.20408

1. Big East (8-11-0)--0.42105
3. Big East (6-20-0)--0.23077
6. Big East (3-21-0)--0.12500
5. Big East (4-15-0)--0.21053
1. Big East (4-9-0)--0.30769
1. Big East (12-27-0)--0.30769
2. Big East (11-27-0)--0.28947
6. Big East (4-18-0)--0.18182
8. Big East (2-21-0)--0.08696
3. Big East (8-25-0)--0.24242

5. Big Ten (13-34-0)--0.27660
5. Big Ten (9-36-0)--0.20000
2. Big Ten (9-26-0)--0.25714
4. Big Ten (9-30-0)--0.23077
2. Big Ten (15-36-0)--0.29412
5. Big Ten (11-33-0)--0.25000
7. Big Ten (4-21-0)--0.16000
2. Big Ten (11-24-0)--0.31429
1. Big Ten (25-41-0)--0.37879
2. Big Ten (14-36-0)--0.28000

3. Pac-10 (15-32-0)--0.31915
1. Pac-10 (13-29-0)--0.30952
5. Pac-10 (9-31-0)--0.22500
6. Pac-10 (7-27-0)--0.20588
5. Pac-10 (7-23-0)--0.23333
8. Pac-10 (6-22-0)--0.21429
4. Pac-10 (10-30-0)--0.25000
3. Pac-10 (10-25-0)--0.28571
5. Pac-10 (4-19-0)--0.17391
6. Pac-10 (5-23-0)--0.17857

2. SEC (18-34-0)--0.34615
2. SEC (19-43-0)--0.30645
4. SEC (13-38-0)--0.25490
3. SEC (13-37-0)--0.26000
3. SEC (14-41-0)--0.25455
6. SEC (11-35-0)--0.23913
1. SEC (20-34-0)--0.37037
1. SEC (21-44-0)--0.32308
2. SEC (21-45-0)--0.31818
5. SEC (9-36-0)--0.20000

Highest and lowest winning percentages with the average position for each conference.

highest
1. Big East (8-11-0)--0.42105
1. Big Ten (25-41-0)--0.37879
1. SEC (20-34-0)--0.37037
1. ACC (17-36-0)--0.32075
3. Pac-10 (15-32-0)--0.31915
4. Big 12 (15-36-0)--0.29412

lowest
6. SEC (11-35-0)--0.20000
6. ACC (7-28-0)--0.20000
5. Pac-10 (4-19-0)--0.17391
7. Big Ten (4-21-0)--0.16000
7. Big 12 (3-25-0)--0.10714
8. Big East (2-21-0)--0.08696

average position
SEC 2.9
ACC 3.3
Big Ten 3.5
Big East 3.6
PAC-10 4.6
Big-12 4.7

Looking at this further we see that the SEC was first in this category only twice in a decade and didn’t even have the highest single year winning percentage. However, they did achieve the highest average position and a tie for best lowest single year winning percentage.

Here are the cumulative results for every D1 conference for the BCS years.

1. SEC (159-387-0)--0.29121
2. Big Ten (120-317-0)--0.27460
3. ACC (100-278-0)--0.26455
4. Pac-10 (86-261-0)--0.24784
5. Big East (62-194-0)--0.24219
6. Big 12 (99-326-0)--0.23294
7. Independent (13-107-0)--0.10833
8. CUSA (15-141-0)--0.09615
9. WAC (13-145-0)--0.08228
10. MWC (9-113-0)--0.07377
11. MAC (9-141-0)--0.06000
12. Missouri Valley (0-3-0)--0.00000
12. Sun Belt (0-61-0)--0.00000
12. Big West (0-15-0)--0.00000
  (685-2489-0)--0.21582

In conclusion, this certainly will not end the conference superiority debates. This is merely an example intended to illustrate how superior results are achieved through consistency rather than domination. If anything, performance during down years are more telling. So, it appears to me that both sides have valid arguments. The SEC is usually not the best but achieves superior results through consistency rather than perpetual domination.

Links to the raw data

2007
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=2007&thy=2007&yrk=on&fcn=on

2006
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=2006&thy=2006&yrk=on&fcn=on

2005
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=2005&thy=2005&yrk=on&fcn=on

2004
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=2004&thy=2004&yrk=on&fcn=on

2003
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=2003&thy=2003&yrk=on&fcn=on

2002
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=2002&thy=2002&yrk=on&fcn=on

2001
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=2001&thy=2001&yrk=on&fcn=on

2000
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=2000&thy=2000&yrk=on&fcn=on

1999
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=1999&thy=1999&yrk=on&fcn=on

1998
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=1998&thy=1998&yrk=on&fcn=on

1998-2007
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cf
btrivia/record.php?fry=1998&thy=2007&yrk=on&fcn=on
 

 

 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com